17 December 2008
GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: CAUSES AND PROBABLE CONSEQUENCES
The MURCIR Panel which took place at Mustafa Necati Conference Hall was chaired by Prof. Nesrin Sungur from Marmara University’s Department of Economics and the speakers were Prof. Hayri Kozanoğlu from Marmara University’s Department of Economics, Lect. Özgür Üşenmez from Marmara University’s Department of Political Science and International Relations, writer Sungur Savran and Prof. Ahmet Çakmak.
Hayri Kozanoğlu in his speech stressed that we have to determine whether the crisis we are passing through, which he calls the first real crisis of global capitalism, is systemic or structural. Kozanoğlu also criticized Keynesianism that became popular again with the last crisis. He argued that neo-liberalism and capitalist globalization lost their hegemonic power and things became easier for alternative thoughts. Kozanoğlu enumerated the solutions for the crisis as to increase the domestic consumption, to outline public an ecological solutions and the resistance of the working class.
Özgür Üşenmez talked about how the last crisis has started and evolved. He also mentioned the role of the derivative markets and loaning in the origins of the crisis. He reminded that 1929 crisis was surmounted by the arm trade during the Second World War and he warned that the same thing is very likely to happen with this last crisis.
Sungur Savran talked about the place of the last crisis in the history of capitalism and its meaning regarding class struggles. He defined the crisis as an “unfinished devaluation crisis” and argued that it started during 1974-75 and is the third big crisis of capitalism. He also warned that the crisis can cause a third world war by reviving nationalism and increasing the competition between the imperialist states. He predicted that fascism in some places and class struggles in some other places will rise as a consequence of the crisis.
Ahmet Çakmak started his speech by showing the statistics of bank bankruptcies. He argued that these statistics prove that the Keynesian politics did not work and that it is not correct to say that the great depression of 1930 was surmounted by Keynesian policies. He predicted that the consequence of the last crisis will be either a technological boom or a war. He also pointed out that that the unemployment will grow even further and that the world will have to live from now on with very high unemployment rates.